How should the hottest market cope with the crazy

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How should the market deal with the "Crazy" rise in nylon prices?

the recent rise in nylon market is fierce. The market of the entire nylon chain, whether upstream raw materials or downstream fabrics, has blown a strong upward trend, which can be called the trend of "Crazy". Until it reached an all-time high, it had to make everyone marvel at such a rise

judging from the caprolactam market, the spot offer price of RMB was once low at RMB/ton in the early stage, and then the market rose all the way, pulling up to RMB/ton, with an increase of up to 3500 yuan/ton; The US gold market was at a low level of 2300 US dollars/ton, with a sharp increase of 500 US dollars/ton, and soared to 2800 US dollars/ton, reaching an all-time high in both markets. In November, just when everyone thought that the market would stabilize, the spot market in the inner market continued to be strong and upward, rising more than 500 yuan/ton again, breaking the price level of 23000 yuan, the highest point in history, and reaching a record high, reaching the peak of 23500 yuan/ton; The external market also made an unprecedented offer to a record high of US $2900/ton. At the same time, there has been a historically difficult move to close the plate in the internal and external market. Most of the cargo holders have closed the plate and are reluctant to sell, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the upstream and downstream

from the perspective of the East China market of nylon chips, the transaction prices of conventional spinning and high-speed spinning in the early stage were once low at 22500 yuan/ton and 22700 yuan/ton respectively. After a steady upward adjustment, they were once stable at around 24000 yuan/ton and 24200 yuan/ton, with an increase of up to 1500 yuan/ton. After the National Day holiday, the market price continued to soar steadily, rising again by 1400 yuan/ton to 25400 yuan/ton and 25600 yuan/ton respectively, creating another peak

the nylon silk market has shown a rare upward trend. Up to now, suppliers in Shengze have never closed their offers. On the one hand, the shortage of spot goods, the lack of market supply, and the limited factory inventory have prompted prices to soar all the way. On the other hand, the price of the product rises day by day, which makes the buyer and the seller fall into a deadlock. If there are goods, they dare not offer to sell, for fear of losing money due to changes in the next second. Buyers dare not take the order at will, for fear of falling again at a high price. A small number of spot purchases are made in the form of cash settlement, with a daily increase of 500 yuan at a low level and more than yuan at a high level. The explosion of nylon air transformer wire is the most obvious, and all specifications have risen to more than 40000 yuan/ton. The factory has no stock and only accepts orders. The delivery date has been scheduled to February next year. The daily increase of 40d and 70D is as high as 1500 yuan/ton, 40/34 to 45000 yuan/ton, 70/24 extinction mainstream to 32000 yuan/ton, and there is no bargaining settlement. The Zhejiang market increased by 1000 yuan/ton, with high-end poy85d/24 raised to 29000 yuan/ton for acceptance, 85d/48 raised to 29500 yuan/ton, 40/12 half light raised to 32300 yuan/ton, 50/24 half light raised to 32000 yuan/ton, and 70/24 half light raised to yuan/ton. Compared with Fujian market as nylon base, the rise is relatively rational

the downstream nylon interwoven fabric market is also rising under the pressure of upstream raw materials. Up to now, 228t Taslon has risen to 6.3 yuan per meter, while 228t Taslon has risen to 6.8 yuan per meter, with an increase of 0.2 yuan or more per day. The fabrics of NiSi spinning and brocade cotton series are increased by more than 20% on the original basis

what factors made the nylon market rise so crazy

I The rising price of imported goods drives the market

in the domestic market, imported nylon has always occupied a large market share. The implementation of anti-dumping measures by the Ministry of Commerce undoubtedly strained the supply of nylon, thus promoting the rise of nylon prices. Whether caprolactam or nylon chips, the price of imported goods continues to rise, which undoubtedly increases the cost pressure of downstream enterprises. Imported caprolactam is reported to be 23500 yuan/ton, and nylon chips are heard to have a high price of 27000 yuan/ton. The increased cost pressure undoubtedly pushes up the domestic nylon market


II The soaring market of other raw materials affects

the rise in the price of polyester in the downstream is mainly affected by cotton. The continuous rise of cotton has increased the procurement of chemical fiber raw materials by downstream textile enterprises. Coupled with the substantial increase in the production capacity of downstream weaving machines, polyester supply is tight, and many short fiber enterprises even have negative inventory. So far, the inventory of polyester short fiber has been negative for 16 days. Strong demand and negative inventory have created strong favorable conditions for the sharp rise of polyester staple fiber. Polyester short prices also rose frequently. The mainstream market quotation broke through the 20000 mark, and it was common to close the market and be reluctant to sell

III The factory inventory is limited, and the supply of goods is tight.

the factory enterprise reaction, as the chemical fiber industry itself is a low profit margin industry, the impact of raw materials on nylon production enterprises is more obvious. In the process of price rise, the cost pressure increases rapidly, and the cost increase leads to the decline of profitability. It is inevitable to digest the pressure brought by the rise by increasing the ex factory price; In addition, some domestic nylon enterprises have reduced production to alleviate the pressure. First, the production reduction inventory has shrunk significantly, the market demand is large, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is bound to rise. In addition, due to the enhancement of the expectation of price rise, the seller 1. What needs to be checked before the experiment: the phenomenon of inventory not being sold has led to insufficient supply in the market, resulting in downstream procurement difficulties, tight supply, and the price has been driven up

IV The impact of macro policies

at present, the prices of many commodities in the market have shown a strong upward trend. On the one hand, the country continues to implement a loose monetary policy. On the other hand, we should manage inflation expectations well. The market does not have the power to fall. At the beginning of 2010, the import tariff of caprolactam in China was raised again from 5% to 7%; By late April, the Ministry of Commerce once again announced that it would file an anti-dumping investigation on imported caprolactam. By October, the preliminary determination of domestic anti-dumping on caprolactam must give impetus to the industry in the caprolactam market, whose tougheners are mainly MBS and acrylate copolymers, so as to maintain a strong upward trend and have more room for strength

how will the market respond to ease the momentum of such soaring prices

so far, the crazy rise of nylon has made the upstream and downstream of nylon panic. What is the good way for the market to alleviate the severe situation. The author believes that, on the one hand, national policies will not allow the market to rise so sharply without restrictions, and some policy interventions will be introduced; In addition, the Ministry of Commerce has investigated the caprolactam products produced by three domestic enterprises, and the results show that there is no difference between the domestic quality and imported goods, which shows that the domestic quality can fully meet the downstream demand. At present, facing the high technical difficulties such as overcoming flow marks and welding lines of imported goods, enterprises reduce the number of imported goods, and the cost pressure is relieved, which is conducive to the rise control of the market

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